Resolves true if Manifold Markets (or some affiliated company or organization) releases a crypto token on mainnet by April 1, 2022.
#ManifoldMarkets #crypto
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
Will Manifold Markets have an official launch on or before Jan 25th?
34% chance
Will Manifold parse the date in this question by 2024?
50% chance
Who will be hired by Manifold before 2025?
Will Manifold Markets win an Emergent Ventures grant?
30% chance
Will Manifold Markets require Proof of Humanity by the end of 2022?
62% chance
Will Manifold Markets win an EA Grant?
75% chance
Will Lex Fridman create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
50% chance
If we launch a token in 2022, will it have a market cap of $20M by Jan 2023?
32% chance
Will Manifold Markets win a Pluralism and Civil Exchange grant?
37% chance
Will Manifold implement demurrage?
6% chance