Is Omicron less lethal than Delta?
Mini
2
Ṁ60Jun 23
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I'll probably resolve similar to
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/ but accept sufficiently strong indirect evidence as well - there's concern over there that it may be hard to get definitive evidence.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
60% chance
Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?
46% chance
"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
44% chance
#Omicron has a 100% or bigger transmission advantage in practice versus Delta
79% chance
Will there be a 2022 SARS-CoV-2 variant named "Upsilon"?
54% chance
"Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?"
45% chance
In US, pandemic fades away to pre-Delta case levels or lower, with occasional flare-ups
72% chance
US covid cases below Delta peak by end of March
74% chance
What will the trajectory of Covid be in the US for 2022?
Will at least one country have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by 11/2022?
59% chance