"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?"
Mini
1
80
Dec 31
49%
chance

We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.

This is question #16 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.

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